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Consensus: Hard drive shipments up and to the right

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Source: IHS iSuppli Research, September 2012

As StorageNewsletter.com puts it, hard drive shipments are expected to hit a record level this year at 524 Million units. “The 2012 number will be the highest shipment figure on record in the HDD books at year-end-but the achievement will not stand for long. In fact, HDD shipments are projected to climb continually, the stellar results of each year bested by the next in predictable but welcome fashion until at least 2016. By then, HDD shipments will hit 575.1 million units.”

This is no surprise. Data demand or total HDD capacity demand is growing twice as fast as the technology needed to increase areal density. This according to Seagate Market Research and Competitive Intelligence.  Heat-Assisted-Magnetc-Recording (HAMR) will help, but in the meantime, to meet capacity demand, more and more HDDs are needed. This trend shows no sign of stopping.  Consider the exabyte demand today versus 2020…15x more data in 2020 than today.

Tom Coughlin of Coughlin Associates sees ever more robust growth.  He recently posted on Forbes.com, “If we assume 14% unit growth annually from 2013 through 2017 (which could be higher some years and lower in other years) the industry will grow from less than 600 M units in 2012 to over 1 B units shipped by 2016 or 2017.”

Even if their numbers are different, the one thing both research agencies have in common – HDD shipments will be up and to the right for years to come.

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